How epidemics end

How to distribute antidote to control epidemics

We give a rigorous analysis of variations of the contact process on a finite graph in which the cure rate is allowed to vary from one vertex to the next, and even to depend on the current state of the system. In particular, we study the epidemic threshold in the models where the cure rate is proportional to the degree of the node or when it is proportional to the number of its infected neighbors.

How Clustering Affects Epidemics in Random Networks

Motivated by the analysis of social networks, we study a model of random networks that has both a given degree distribution and a tunable clustering coefficient. We consider two types of growth processes on these graphs: diffusion and symmetric threshold model. The diffusion process is inspired from epidemic models. It is characterized by an infection probability, each neighbor transmitting the...

How Slogans End

Learning from Ebola Virus: How to Prevent Future Epidemics

The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone demonstrated that the World Health Organization (WHO) is incapable to control outbreaks of infectious diseases in less developed regions of the world. This essay analyses the causes for the failure of the international response and proposes four measures to improve resilience, early detection and response to futur...

How can we prepare better for influenza epidemics?

This Personal View (BMJ 2017;359:j5007, doi:10.1136/bmj. j5007) states that the World Health Organisation has recently taken antiviral neuraminidase inhibitors off its Model List of Essential Medicines. It should say that “The World Health Organization has recently downgraded its recommendations in its Model List of Essential Medicines for the limited indication of severe illness due to confirm...